When people ask me what games Nebraska will win and lose each season, I basically plead ignorance. Not because I’m totally uneducated (though you might have an argument there), but because I think a college football game can unfold in countless ways.

For instance, Nebraska doesn’t lose to Northwestern last year if Rex Burkhead and Quincy Enunwa don’t fumble in Wildcat territory in the first half. Nebraska doesn’t beat Ohio State if Braxton Miller doesn’t get hurt.

So how do you make projections? I prefer win/loss probabilities. Match up the two teams 100 times and, according to my (not-so) scientific analysis, this is how many times Nebraska wins.

From toughest game to easiest:

Ohio State: 31/69
Will we see the OSU that jumped all over Nebraska in the first half last year? Or the OSU that crumbled in the second half. I’m guessing the former.

Michigan State: 33/67
Not sure Husker fans appreciate the difficulty of this one. MSU hasn’t lost at home since 2009. And the game comes at the end of a rough six-week stretch for Nebraska.

Michigan: 43/57
Can’t wait to see the maize and blue invade the Sea of Red. A division title may be on the line.

Wisconsin: 59/41
Danny O’Brien’s first test as Wisconsin’s quarterback comes on Crazy Uniform Night. Unlike last year, I’m not sure the Badgers’ D corrals Nebraska.

Iowa: 67/33
The environment will be tough. But will the opponent? Iowa has a lot of question marks.

Northwestern: 72/28
Huge test for the Blackshirts against Kain Colter. Taylor Martinez may need a huge day. He’ll likely get it.

UCLA: 74/26
Gotta say, I think this one will be easier than most Husker fans expect. Jim Mora isn’t Nick Saban.

Penn State: 83/17
This Nittany Lion time will be even uglier than last year’s version. But they will be physical.

Southern Miss: 84/16
The Golden Eagles were really good in 2011. They have a lot of new faces in 2012.

Minnesota: 92/8
Barring a miraculous turnaround, Jerry Kill’s team isn’t ready to put up a fight.

Arkansas State: 93/7
Gus Malzahn’s offense will score, you can be sure. But the Red Wolves won’t stop NU.

Idaho State: 99/1
Bo could bench the first string and still be 80/20.

That adds up to about 9-3. Where am I wrong? You tell me.

ARTICLE/PICKS BY: Dirk Chatelain is a staff writer for The Omaha World-Herald and covers Nebraska football and general assignments. You can follow Dirk on Twitter (@dirkchatelain) or email him at dchatelain@owh.com